The Tories are facing an absolute catastrophe in Wales in the next general election, according to a new poll.

Redfield and Wilton Strategies have conducted a poll looking at how people in Wales would vote in Westminster and Senedd elections. The Conservatives have fallen to their lowest rating in Wales since the company started doing these polls in April last year.

The rival right-wing party Reform, which was founded by Nigel Farage in 2019 as the Brexit Party, now appears to be neck and neck with the Conservatives in Westminster voting intentions. Labour is projected to win almost half the vote, 49%, an increase of four percentage points in a month.

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Altogether, the results are as follows:

  • Labour 49% (+4)
  • Conservatives 16% (-6)
  • Reform UK 15% (+2)
  • Plaid Cymru 10% (–)
  • Liberal Democrat 5% (–)
  • Green 5% (–)
  • Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 30%.

Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again. Whereas only 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.

Former Tory voters appear to be going off in different directions with 25% of 2019 Conservative voters now saying they would vote for Labour, while 24% would vote for Reform UK.

What about the next Senedd election?

The next Welsh Senedd Election is not due to be held until May 2026. Nevertheless, when voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads in both the constituency and regional lists. Plaid appears to have risen to now be on the same level of support as the Tories.

When it came to the regional lists, Plaid now appears to be in second place.

A total of 64% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (57%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (33%), the environment (18%), and housing (18%).

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Welsh voters (58%) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 16% (+2) view the UK Government as competent.

How is Wales' new First Minister doing?

It is good and bad news for Vaughan Gething. The First Minister of Wales takes office with a net approval rating of +4%. The poll finds 25% of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister of Wales against 21% who disapprove. Unfortunately for him a majority of 54% are undecided. They either say they neither approve nor disapprove (36%) or don’t know (18%).

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader Andrew RT Davies who has been behaving bizarrely in Twitter, holds a net approval rating of -12% (–), while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, continues to hold a net approval rating of -1% (+4).